This article, which was written shortly after the Croatian elections, appeared in the Summer 2000 issue of InterLib, the newsletter of the Liberal International British Group.
Brian Gallagher looks at the recent General Elections results
The recent parliamentary and presidential elections in Croatia have seen a complete transfer of power from the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) to a coalition of opposition parties, in particular the Croatian Social Liberal Party (HSLS) and the former communist Social Democratic Party (SDP). The West has welcomed the results. It is worth considering why the HDZ lost, the role of the international community, Croatia's problematic present and it's hopefully better future.
The HDZ, led by former communist Franjo Tudjman, had ruled Croatia since winning the first free elections in Croatia in 1990 in reaction to Belgrade's 'Greater Serbia' policies. By the end of 1991 one third of Croatia had been fully annexed by Serbia, hundreds of thousands ethnically cleansed, many thousands dead, countless maimed and the economy in ruins. In 1995 however, Croatia militarily recovered most of its territory. Consequently, the HDZ won presidential and parliamentary elections. Tudjman died in December 1999, resulting in presidential elections taking place after the due parliamentary ones.
There are various reasons why the HDZ lost. There had been a large number of corruption scandals, such as the collapse of the Globus group. On top of this there were various intelligence scandals. Most importantly, the economy was in trouble; unemployment stood at 20% and living standards had dropped.
The Croatian press were instrumental in eroding the popularity of the HDZ. Croatia has a reputation for a 'state-controlled' press. In reality, a large portion of the press is owned privately by those close to the then governing party; a situation not unfamiliar in the UK.
However, other newspapers and magazines such as Feral Tribune, Globus, Novi List and most significantly the weekly Nacional were highly critical of the HDZ government. It is true that the HDZ leant on the press; newspapers such as Feral Tribune were taken to court. Such attempts were almost farcical; cases were thrown out and the press carried on publishing corruption and intelligence scandals. Indeed, Nacional recently published a story naming intelligence officers alleging they had electronically eavesdropped on the then acting president. If a British newspaper were to name MI5/6 officers its editors could be looking at prison terms - if the story were ever published in the first place. Although there are independent local TV and radio stations such as Radio 101, the state television service HRT was indeed effectively state-controlled; the election results however prove that it's influence was perhaps exaggerated (HRT is due to be reformed). The main opposition parties had over the years formed themselves into a more effective force. Previously being divided, the 'opposition six' gradually formed alliances, providing a united front to the HDZ..
The most significant of these alliances was the SDP/HSLS coalition. The other opposition parties ('the opposition four') formed their own coalition. The 'opposition four' also contains the Liberal Party whose members split from HSLS due to HSLS co-operating locally with HDZ. With policies for economic improvement and rooting out corruption (including reviewing past privatisations) as well as constitutional change to reduce the power of the presidency the SDP/HSLS coalition swept to power in the parliamentary elections on 3 January taking 71 seats (out of 151).
A government under SDP leader Ivica Racan which includes members of the 'opposition four' has been formed. The HDZ were reduced from 75 to 41 seats, and are now currently divided and ineffective. The Presidential elections provided some real surprises. It had been assumed that either Drazen Budisa the HSLS/SDP candidate or Mate Granic, the former popular 'moderate' HDZ foreign minister would win.
In the end it was the outsider Stipe Mesic, representing the 'opposition four' who won. Granic was knocked out in the first round due to the splits that were apparent in the HDZ (and which had contributed to it's losing the parliamentary elections). Both Budisa and Mesic were political dissidents who spent time in prison. Mesic was in the HDZ but broke with Tudjman in 1994, claiming disagreement over Bosnian policy and founded the Croatian's People's Party (HND).
During campaigning Mesic made jokes, offered to be accessible to citizens, promised to put criminals in prison and cut off unpopular funding to the Bosnian Croats. Budisa came across as too stiff and formal, and promised a responsible and transparent policy towards the Bosnian Croats. Mesic won the first round, with Budisa coming second. Towards the second round things got nastier, with questions being asked about Mesic's funding and a story appearing in the newspaper Slobodna Dalmacija alleging that Mesic worked with Yugoslav intelligence; a story denounced as a smear.
Mesic was also criticised due to his view in 1967 that signatories to a declaration on the Croatian language be arrested. Mesic criticised Budisa's actions as dissident, which prompted an angry response from Budisa who pointed out his four years in prison.
Mesic won with 56% of the vote. The HDZ were headed for a deserved fall very similar to that of the British Conservative party in 1997. However, the British Helsinki Human Rights Group which monitored the parliamentary elections reported "improper and unwarranted interference" in the parliamentary elections by the US and Europe. The US and Europe backed the opposition and provided funding to various opposition groups. The West boycotted President Tudjman's funeral, as well as isolating Croatia internationally.
The isolation of Croatia had been hypocritical; The Independent pointed out that if Turkey could be offered EU membership then it would be "absurd" for Croatia to be denied it. The backing for the opposition in Croatia can partially be explained by the international community's hopes for Serbs to overthrow Milosovic. Madeline Albright, US Secretary of State said that the elections sent "a simple message to Serbs: There is a better future". However, Croatia has always been more democratic than Serbia (not least due to completely different pre-Yugoslav histories).
In 1971 Belgrade crushed a movement for democracy in Croatia. In 1990 Croatia moved from communism to multi-party democracy, however flawed. This did not have a noticeable influencing effect on Serbia. The Serb 'opposition' has yet to show any remorse for the millions of victims of the 'Greater Serbia' land-grab. Only when the Serbian people give up their fantasy of a 'Greater Serbia' will things change. The international community were also concerned with Croatia's Bosnia policy.
The government have declared their commitment to a unitary Bosnian state and whilst aid to the Bosnian Croats is unlikely to be cut off, it is being reduced and will be made more transparent. "One step further" has also been promised with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY). Croatia has been internationally criticised for not co-operating with the ICTY. However, Croatia has been instrumental in facilitating the transfer of the current publicly indicted Croats to The Hague; none are now at large. The ICTY savages Croatia for slowness in handing over suspects and documents, yet is rather less critical of NATO which lets major Serb war crime suspects roam free in Bosnia.
The main area of dispute regards documents on 'Operation Storm' in which Croatia liberated large chunks of its territory in 1995.
The Croats have refused to hand them over, claiming 'Operation Storm' is not within the ICTY's jurisdiction and fearing the liberation operations would be criminalised if Croat generals are indicted. However, the matter may be resolved by Croatia handing over the documents (which National reports are not incriminating) and prosecuting individual Croat soldiers for crimes committed during the liberation actions. Perhaps then the ICTY will put more effort then it has done in investigating war crimes against Croats - a justified Croatian complaint. The new government faces many challenges, primarily the economy. The EU and US virtually told the Croatian people that aid would be forthcoming if they dispensed with the HDZ; it is now time for them to live up to their side of the bargain.
Foreign Secretary Robin Cook's recent visit to Croatia was not promising. Whilst producing fine words, he offered little; not even the lifting of the recently imposed visa requirements on Croatian citizens, which had been hoped for. He even gave an example of his notorious 'ethical' foreign policy by presuming to instruct the Croats on co-operation with the ICTY whilst Jack Straw was letting Pinochet return to Chile! Given that Croatia has handed over Croats to the ICTY, they should instruct him on such matters. One of the problems Croatia faces and genuinely does not seem to understand is the wholly negative portrayal of Croatia in the western media. One example: The "Krajina" Serbs who with the Yugoslav army annexed and ethnically cleansed one third of Croatia and then left (under orders of their leadership) in advance of 'Operation Storm' leaving behind over 3,000 bodies of their victims are portrayed as victims. Unbelievably, the Croats are portrayed as the aggressor.
The Serb lobby relentlessly attack Croatia, disingenuously not mentioning the invasion of Croatia. Western politicians and officials often base policy on what they see in the media.
Due to their lack of experience, the Croats cannot seem to grasp this and never refute anything, which in large part is the reason for their international problems. Indeed, some Croat politicians and journalists do not understand the influence of the Serb lobby - especially in the UK - and appear taken in by matters such as Cooks 'ethical' policy (no, I am not joking!). Indeed, Cook was highly critical of Croatia having the temerity to liberate its territory in 1995 - not mentioned on his visit.
Croatia needs to learn the art of spin, and fast.
Until they do, the Serb lobby will continue to write Croatia's story, with all that implies. Despite all the problems, the new government really does provide the opportunity for a prosperous future for Croatia within it's rightful home of Europe. EU and NATO membership should now be offered.
This is a chance for the US, EU, Britain and Croatia to forge a constructive relationship that has not existed previously. It must be grasped with vigour.
© Brian Gallagher
The British Helsinki Human Rights Group report on the Croatia 2000 Parliamentary elections can be found here
