Blair wants to show the UK working with Europe in a harmonious, positive way. Will he really want a split - big or small - with Europe over General Gotovina?
CROATIAFOCUS COMMENT
A BRITISH U-TURN OVER CROATIA?
21.04.04
by Brian Gallagher
Are the British gearing up for a U-turn over Croatia? Previously, the United Kingdom, in the form of Europe Minister Denis McShane and the Foreign Office were insistent that Britain would block Croatia joining the EU if it did not hand over General Ante Gotovina. Yet within days of negative comments, the UK has not blocked the EU from giving a positive 'avis' to Croatia's desire to join the EU. There are a number of reasons for this, but one factor that may be overlooked is the rather larger U-turn by Prime Minister Tony Blair over the European Constitution.
Britain has seemed more concerned with Gotovina than with the Serbian indictees Karadzic and Mladic, no doubt because of the British role in supporting Belgrade during the war.
But in Zagreb on 19 April, MacShane was full of glowing words for Croatia. He believed that Croatia would join the EU before the end of the decade. He even mentioned Croat partisans working with Britons during the second world war - a far cry from the 'Ustasha' propaganda of old. Of course, MacShane did not explicitly say policy had changed - the UK could still veto Croatia's entry into the EU and may yet do so. Even so, he went out of his way to be positive. "Gotovina no longer remains an obstacle to saying Croatia can start accession talks," MacShane told the Guardian.
A large part of this turnaround has no doubt much to do with anti-British feeling developing in Croatia; it appeared from MacShane's interview statements that Britain did not care if Croatia could not get hold of Gotovina - they would block Croatian entry anyway. Anti-British feeling is not in the UK's interests. A negative 'avis' from the EU would have meant no more hold over Croatia by the UK, EU or Carla del Ponte. Furthermore, the emergence of the 1995 videotape of General Gotovina berating his officers for their soldiers' criminal acts has severely damaged the credibility of an already highly dubious UN indictment - which ludicrously claims that such acts were part of some master plan by Gotovina and others. This cannot have passed unnoticed in the Foreign Office.
However, British domestic politics may have played a major role. On 20 April, Tony Blair announced a British referendum - bizarrely not mentioning the word 'referendum' - on the proposed European constitution. This is regarded as major U-turn - he previously ruled out such a referendum. There has been much humour about Blair's 'reverse gears' - he once said he had none. It is certainly one of the most extraordinary turnarounds in recent British political history.
What has this got to do with Croatia? Blair will no doubt campaign for a 'yes' vote. He is already making strong pro-EU comments. He will not want any arguments or discords with his EU partners; this would play into the hands of 'no' campaigners.
It is known that Britain - with the Dutch - are the ones preventing Croatian entry into the EU. In June, if Britain votes against Croatia to start accession talks it would create an EU split. This would annoy other countries - who then may be disinclined to work with Britain on other matters. MacShane's U-turn seems to follow straight on from Blair's - which had been extensively leaked to the press days before Blair made his announcement.
Of course, the Croatia issue is a small thing in relation to UK politics, and we can expect similar changes on other EU policy issues. But Blair wants to show the UK working with Europe in a harmonious, positive way. Will he really want a split - big or small - with Europe over General Gotovina? Especially, as mentioned above, when the indictment is so flimsy? Let alone the questions that may - justifiably - arise again over Serbophilia in the Foreign Office.
Certainly, the various generals Croatia has sent to the Hague of late has provided a good excuse for Britain to change tack - they can now report how impressed they are with Croatia's co-operation.
It is revealing that this Croatia U-turn has nothing to do with morality and all the rest of it - but everything to do with Britain's interests and the politics of the Blair government. Something Croats would do well to bear in mind.
© Brian Gallagher